CF Industries Holdings DCF Stock Analysis.

Here’s my assumptions:

Risk Free Rate (10 Years Interest Rate Swap): 3.95%

Risk Premium (Taken from the Aswath Damodaran equity premium spreadsheet): 4.62%

Interest Rate Spread on The Risk free rate ( For the cost of debt calculation): 3.5%

Historical Data

Revenue growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 4.64%

Earnings growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 5.70%

Unlevered Free Cash Flow growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): / (from -$1,218B to $1.462B)

Future Assumptions

End of Year FCF growth: 10%

Growth until end of 2026: 10%

Growth until end of 2034: 10%

Perpetual growth: 3%

Net Debt: 1.558B

Outstanding Stock Options Present Value Assumption: $0.005B

Assumptions used for the Black & Scholes model:

• Stock Price: $97
• Strike Price: $34.67
• Time to expiration: 1.5 years
• Risk Free Rate: 3.95%
• Volatility: 25%

Restricted Stock Units Present Value Assumption: $0.408B

Stock Valuation based on these assumptions: $68

Last update 02/21/2026

All the content in this newsletter should be taken as informational content only. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Do your own Due Diligence before investing or contact a professional financial advisor.

I don’t have a position in CF Industries Holdings (CF) and I don’t plan to add a position in the coming days.