Dollar Tree, Inc. DCF Stock Analysis.

Here’s my assumptions:

Risk Free Rate (10 Years Interest Rate Swap): 3.95%

Risk Premium (Taken from the Aswath Damodaran equity premium spreadsheet): 4.62%

Interest Rate Spread on The Risk free rate ( For the cost of debt calculation): 5.5%

Historical Data

Revenue growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): -2.90%

Earnings growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): / (from 282M to -2.919B)

Unlevered Free Cash Flow growth in the last 10 years (CAGR):/ (from -$108.2M to $1.710B)

Future Assumptions

End of Year FCF growth: 5%

Growth until end of 2026: 5%

Growth until end of 2034: 5%

Perpetual growth: 3%

Net Debt: 7.064B

Outstanding Stock Options Present Value Assumption: $0.103B

Assumptions used for the Black & Scholes model:

• Stock Price: $134
• Strike Price: $154.49
• Time to expiration: 7.3 years
• Risk Free Rate: 4.95%
• Volatility: 37%

Restricted Stock Units Present Value Assumption: $0.160B

Stock Valuation based on these assumptions: $183.3

Last update 02/22/2026

All the content in this newsletter should be taken as informational content only. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Do your own Due Diligence before investing or contact a professional financial advisor.

I don’t have a position in Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) and I don’t plan to add a position in the coming days.