Mattel Inc. DCF Stock Analysis.

Here’s my assumptions:

Risk Free Rate (10 Years Interest Rate Swap): 3.98%

Risk Premium (Taken from the Aswath Damodaran equity premium spreadsheet): 4.62%

Interest Rate Spread on The Risk free rate ( For the cost of debt calculation): 5.5%

Last 24 Months Beta: 1.25

Historical Data

Revenue growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 2.14%

Earnings growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 2.42%

Unlevered Free Cash Flow growth in the last 10 years (CAGR): 2.16%

Future Assumptions

End of Year FCF growth: 2%

Growth until end of 2026: 2%

Growth until end of 2034: 2%

Perpetual growth: 2%

Net Debt: 1.357B

Outstanding Stock Options Present Value Assumption: $0.038B

Assumptions used for the Black & Scholes model:

• Stock Price: $16
• Strike Price: $19.69
• Time to expiration: 3.3 years
• Risk Free Rate: 3.92%
• Volatility: 36%

Restricted Stock Units Present Value Assumption: $0.094B

Stock Valuation based on these assumptions: $26.47

Last update 03/10/2026

All the content in this newsletter should be taken as informational content only. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Do your own Due Diligence before investing or contact a professional financial advisor.

I don’t have a position in Mattel Inc. (Mat) and I don’t plan to add a position in the coming days.